Best returners — full ATP & WTA ranking

Leader

Jannik Sinner

+7.3 points per 100 return points above the tour

Average: 0.9
Std. dev.: 2.0
Leader sits at: 3.2σ
Range: -6.9 … 7.3

122 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jannik Sinner#1	+7.3	100.0	98
2	Carlos Alcaraz#2	+6.8	99.2	102
3	Mariano Navone#44	+6.1	98.3	114
4	Alex de Minaur#8	+5.1	97.5	103
5	Francisco Cerundolo#25	+4.8	96.7	89
6	Daniil Medvedev#7	+4.5	95.9	95
7	Lorenzo Musetti#15	+3.9	95.0	88
8	SERNovak Djokovic#5	+3.6	94.2	58
9	Damir Dzumhur#104	+3.5	93.4	152
10	Corentin Moutet#60	+3.3	92.6	109
11	Vit Kopriva#71	+3.2	91.7	156
12	Sebastian Baez#53	+3.2	90.9	75
13	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina#27	+3.1	90.1	88
14	Learner Tien#12	+3.1	89.3	137
15	Botic Van De Zandschulp#59	+2.9	88.4	98
16	Jacob Fearnley#107	+2.8	87.6	110
17	Tommy Paul#24	+2.8	86.8	73
18	Marton Fucsovics#82	+2.8	86.0	85
19	DG David Goffin	+2.7	85.1	88
20	Cristian Garin#137	+2.7	84.3	112
21	Roberto Carballes Baena	+2.7	83.5	75
22	Casper Ruud#17	+2.6	82.6	79
23	Jack Draper#143	+2.6	81.8	43
24	Jaume Munar#46	+2.5	81.0	93
25	Alexander Zverev#3	+2.4	80.2	113
26	KN Kei Nishikori	+2.3	79.3	43
27	Arthur Fils#21	+2.3	78.5	60
28	Wu Yibing#118	+2.3	77.7	67
29	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	+2.2	76.9	161
30	Jesper de Jong#106	+2.2	76.0	146
31	Pedro Martinez	+2.2	75.2	94
32	FF Fabio Fognini	+2.1	74.4	54
33	Luciano Darderi#20	+2.0	73.6	113
34	Jenson Brooksby#74	+2.0	72.7	64
35	Denis Shapovalov#48	+1.8	71.9	72
36	SERDusan Lajovic#146	+1.8	71.1	94
37	Andrey Rublev#18	+1.7	70.2	85
38	Hugo Gaston#97	+1.7	69.4	110
39	HR Holger Rune#102	+1.7	68.6	49
40	Zizou Bergs#33	+1.7	67.8	117
41	Pablo Carreno Busta#72	+1.7	66.9	94
42	Joao Fonseca#26	+1.7	66.1	111
43	SK Sebastian Korda#64	+1.6	65.3	63
44	BC Borna Coric	+1.5	64.5	56
45	Zachary Svajda#84	+1.5	63.6	138
46	Tomas Machac#62	+1.4	62.8	61
47	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	+1.4	62.0	97
48	Flavio Cobolli#10	+1.4	61.2	99
49	YN Yoshihito Nishioka	+1.4	60.3	57
50	Jakub Mensik#16	+1.2	59.5	101

How this is calculated

Opponent-adjusted. It is the excess over what the rest of the tour manages AGAINST THE SAME OPPONENTS, shrunk towards zero by n/(n+15). Without that adjustment the list rewards whoever never meets a good opponent: a Challenger regular topped the raw table.
Minimum 30 matches with serve statistics. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Every match since 2024 — that is where serve statistics begin in this database; before that there are none.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.

Leader

Jannik Sinner

+7.3 points per 100 return points above the tour

Average: 0.9
Std. dev.: 2.0
Leader sits at: 3.2σ
Range: -6.9 … 7.3

122 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jannik Sinner#1	+7.3	100.0	98
2	Carlos Alcaraz#2	+6.8	99.2	102
3	Mariano Navone#44	+6.1	98.3	114
4	Alex de Minaur#8	+5.1	97.5	103
5	Francisco Cerundolo#25	+4.8	96.7	89
6	Daniil Medvedev#7	+4.5	95.9	95
7	Lorenzo Musetti#15	+3.9	95.0	88
8	SERNovak Djokovic#5	+3.6	94.2	58
9	Damir Dzumhur#104	+3.5	93.4	152
10	Corentin Moutet#60	+3.3	92.6	109
11	Vit Kopriva#71	+3.2	91.7	156
12	Sebastian Baez#53	+3.2	90.9	75
13	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina#27	+3.1	90.1	88
14	Learner Tien#12	+3.1	89.3	137
15	Botic Van De Zandschulp#59	+2.9	88.4	98
16	Jacob Fearnley#107	+2.8	87.6	110
17	Tommy Paul#24	+2.8	86.8	73
18	Marton Fucsovics#82	+2.8	86.0	85
19	DG David Goffin	+2.7	85.1	88
20	Cristian Garin#137	+2.7	84.3	112
21	Roberto Carballes Baena	+2.7	83.5	75
22	Casper Ruud#17	+2.6	82.6	79
23	Jack Draper#143	+2.6	81.8	43
24	Jaume Munar#46	+2.5	81.0	93
25	Alexander Zverev#3	+2.4	80.2	113
26	KN Kei Nishikori	+2.3	79.3	43
27	Arthur Fils#21	+2.3	78.5	60
28	Wu Yibing#118	+2.3	77.7	67
29	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	+2.2	76.9	161
30	Jesper de Jong#106	+2.2	76.0	146
31	Pedro Martinez	+2.2	75.2	94
32	FF Fabio Fognini	+2.1	74.4	54
33	Luciano Darderi#20	+2.0	73.6	113
34	Jenson Brooksby#74	+2.0	72.7	64
35	Denis Shapovalov#48	+1.8	71.9	72
36	SERDusan Lajovic#146	+1.8	71.1	94
37	Andrey Rublev#18	+1.7	70.2	85
38	Hugo Gaston#97	+1.7	69.4	110
39	HR Holger Rune#102	+1.7	68.6	49
40	Zizou Bergs#33	+1.7	67.8	117
41	Pablo Carreno Busta#72	+1.7	66.9	94
42	Joao Fonseca#26	+1.7	66.1	111
43	SK Sebastian Korda#64	+1.6	65.3	63
44	BC Borna Coric	+1.5	64.5	56
45	Zachary Svajda#84	+1.5	63.6	138
46	Tomas Machac#62	+1.4	62.8	61
47	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	+1.4	62.0	97
48	Flavio Cobolli#10	+1.4	61.2	99
49	YN Yoshihito Nishioka	+1.4	60.3	57
50	Jakub Mensik#16	+1.2	59.5	101

How this is calculated

Opponent-adjusted. It is the excess over what the rest of the tour manages AGAINST THE SAME OPPONENTS, shrunk towards zero by n/(n+15). Without that adjustment the list rewards whoever never meets a good opponent: a Challenger regular topped the raw table.
Minimum 30 matches with serve statistics. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Every match since 2024 — that is where serve statistics begin in this database; before that there are none.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.