Deciding sets — full ATP & WTA ranking

Leader

Carlos Alcaraz

82.5% of deciding sets won

Average: 53.4%
Std. dev.: 9.3
Leader sits at: 3.1σ
Range: 36.4 … 82.5

132 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Carlos Alcaraz#2	82.5%	100.0	137
2	Jannik Sinner#1	79.7%	99.2	148
3	SERNovak Djokovic#5	77.5%	98.5	111
4	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	73.9%	97.7	46
5	Learner Tien#19	72.0%	96.9	82
6	RN Rafael Nadal	71.9%	96.2	32
7	Alexander Zverev#3	70.8%	95.4	154
8	KN Kei Nishikori	70.6%	94.7	34
9	Grigor Dimitrov#137	68.6%	93.9	102
10	Casper Ruud#14	68.2%	93.1	110
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	66.1%	92.4	118
12	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	65.7%	91.6	70
13	NK Nick Kyrgios	65.2%	90.8	23
14	Jacob Fearnley#110	64.7%	90.1	51
15	Taylor Fritz#8	64.6%	89.3	147
16	Daniil Medvedev#6	64.6%	88.5	130
17	Flavio Cobolli#9	64.3%	87.8	84
18	Tommy Paul#21	63.1%	87.0	141
19	Cameron Norrie#37	62.9%	86.3	143
20	Lorenzo Musetti#13	62.9%	85.5	116
21	Luciano Darderi#22	62.7%	84.7	67
22	Reilly Opelka#142	62.3%	84.0	53
23	Alex de Minaur#7	62.1%	83.2	140
24	Frances Tiafoe#20	61.7%	82.4	133
25	Tomas Machac#58	61.6%	81.7	73
26	DS Diego Schwartzman	61.3%	80.9	62
27	Matteo Berrettini#40	61.3%	80.2	80
28	Arthur Fils#24	61.1%	79.4	54
29	Wu Yibing#116	60.5%	78.6	43
30	Alexander Bublik#11	60.0%	77.9	120
31	Damir Dzumhur#104	59.7%	77.1	72
32	Andrey Rublev#16	59.2%	76.3	142
33	TK Thanasi Kokkinakis	59.1%	75.6	66
34	Valentin Vacherot#18	59.0%	74.8	61
35	Nuno Borges#55	58.4%	74.0	89
36	HR Holger Rune#99	58.3%	73.3	108
37	Yannick Hanfmann#57	58.3%	72.5	84
38	AV Andrea Vavassori	58.3%	71.8	24
39	Ben Shelton#10	58.3%	71.0	115
40	Jakub Mensik#17	58.0%	70.2	81
41	Rinky Hijikata#93	58.0%	69.5	81
42	Joao Fonseca#27	58.0%	68.7	69
43	Ethan Quinn#51	57.9%	67.9	76
44	Hubert Hurkacz#72	57.9%	67.2	140
45	Jack Draper#143	57.6%	66.4	66
46	SERHamad Medjedovic#73	57.4%	65.6	54
47	SK Sebastian Korda#50	57.3%	64.9	96
48	DT Dominic Thiem	55.8%	64.1	43
49	Marin Cilic#85	55.7%	63.4	70
50	Arthur Cazaux#138	55.3%	62.6	47

How this is calculated

Minimum 20 deciding sets played. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Five years of results. These rows need only the scoreline, which exists far further back than serve statistics do.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.

Leader

Carlos Alcaraz

82.5% of deciding sets won

Average: 53.4%
Std. dev.: 9.3
Leader sits at: 3.1σ
Range: 36.4 … 82.5

132 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Carlos Alcaraz#2	82.5%	100.0	137
2	Jannik Sinner#1	79.7%	99.2	148
3	SERNovak Djokovic#5	77.5%	98.5	111
4	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	73.9%	97.7	46
5	Learner Tien#19	72.0%	96.9	82
6	RN Rafael Nadal	71.9%	96.2	32
7	Alexander Zverev#3	70.8%	95.4	154
8	KN Kei Nishikori	70.6%	94.7	34
9	Grigor Dimitrov#137	68.6%	93.9	102
10	Casper Ruud#14	68.2%	93.1	110
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	66.1%	92.4	118
12	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	65.7%	91.6	70
13	NK Nick Kyrgios	65.2%	90.8	23
14	Jacob Fearnley#110	64.7%	90.1	51
15	Taylor Fritz#8	64.6%	89.3	147
16	Daniil Medvedev#6	64.6%	88.5	130
17	Flavio Cobolli#9	64.3%	87.8	84
18	Tommy Paul#21	63.1%	87.0	141
19	Cameron Norrie#37	62.9%	86.3	143
20	Lorenzo Musetti#13	62.9%	85.5	116
21	Luciano Darderi#22	62.7%	84.7	67
22	Reilly Opelka#142	62.3%	84.0	53
23	Alex de Minaur#7	62.1%	83.2	140
24	Frances Tiafoe#20	61.7%	82.4	133
25	Tomas Machac#58	61.6%	81.7	73
26	DS Diego Schwartzman	61.3%	80.9	62
27	Matteo Berrettini#40	61.3%	80.2	80
28	Arthur Fils#24	61.1%	79.4	54
29	Wu Yibing#116	60.5%	78.6	43
30	Alexander Bublik#11	60.0%	77.9	120
31	Damir Dzumhur#104	59.7%	77.1	72
32	Andrey Rublev#16	59.2%	76.3	142
33	TK Thanasi Kokkinakis	59.1%	75.6	66
34	Valentin Vacherot#18	59.0%	74.8	61
35	Nuno Borges#55	58.4%	74.0	89
36	HR Holger Rune#99	58.3%	73.3	108
37	Yannick Hanfmann#57	58.3%	72.5	84
38	AV Andrea Vavassori	58.3%	71.8	24
39	Ben Shelton#10	58.3%	71.0	115
40	Jakub Mensik#17	58.0%	70.2	81
41	Rinky Hijikata#93	58.0%	69.5	81
42	Joao Fonseca#27	58.0%	68.7	69
43	Ethan Quinn#51	57.9%	67.9	76
44	Hubert Hurkacz#72	57.9%	67.2	140
45	Jack Draper#143	57.6%	66.4	66
46	SERHamad Medjedovic#73	57.4%	65.6	54
47	SK Sebastian Korda#50	57.3%	64.9	96
48	DT Dominic Thiem	55.8%	64.1	43
49	Marin Cilic#85	55.7%	63.4	70
50	Arthur Cazaux#138	55.3%	62.6	47

How this is calculated

Minimum 20 deciding sets played. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Five years of results. These rows need only the scoreline, which exists far further back than serve statistics do.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.