Closing out — full ATP & WTA ranking

Leader

Jacob Fearnley

97.2% of matches closed out after winning the first set

Average: 82.4%
Std. dev.: 5.5
Leader sits at: 2.7σ
Range: 69.1 … 97.2

131 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jacob Fearnley#110	97.2%	100.0	71
2	Wu Yibing#116	94.7%	99.2	57
3	SERNovak Djokovic#5	94.4%	98.5	178
4	Carlos Alcaraz#2	94.1%	97.7	256
5	Jannik Sinner#1	93.6%	96.9	282
6	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	92.2%	96.2	90
7	Learner Tien#19	92.2%	95.4	115
8	Casper Ruud#14	91.4%	94.6	209
9	Daniil Medvedev#6	91.3%	93.8	231
10	MM Maximilian Marterer	91.2%	93.1	34
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	90.6%	92.3	192
12	Grigor Dimitrov#137	90.5%	91.5	137
13	Alexander Zverev#3	90.4%	90.8	251
14	NK Nick Kyrgios	90.0%	90.0	30
15	RN Rafael Nadal	89.6%	89.2	48
16	Joao Fonseca#27	89.4%	88.5	85
17	Yannick Hanfmann#57	89.4%	87.7	113
18	Luciano Darderi#22	89.2%	86.9	102
19	SK Sebastian Korda#50	89.0%	86.2	127
20	Jack Draper#143	88.6%	85.4	105
21	Jenson Brooksby#74	88.4%	84.6	69
22	Francisco Comesana#107	88.2%	83.8	76
23	Flavio Cobolli#9	88.1%	83.1	101
24	Arthur Fils#24	87.9%	82.3	99
25	Tomas Machac#58	87.8%	81.5	82
26	Lorenzo Musetti#13	87.7%	80.8	155
27	Alex de Minaur#7	87.7%	80.0	219
28	HR Holger Rune#99	87.6%	79.2	145
29	Taylor Fritz#8	87.2%	78.5	235
30	Andrey Rublev#16	86.5%	77.7	208
31	Alexander Bublik#11	86.5%	76.9	141
32	Matteo Berrettini#40	86.2%	76.2	116
33	Jakub Mensik#17	85.7%	75.4	119
34	Tommy Paul#21	85.6%	74.6	194
35	Cameron Norrie#37	85.5%	73.8	173
36	ER Emil Ruusuvuori	85.4%	73.1	96
37	Ethan Quinn#51	85.4%	72.3	89
38	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	85.3%	71.5	68
39	Gabriel Diallo#108	85.2%	70.8	88
40	Aleksandar Vukic#101	85.1%	70.0	94
41	Valentin Vacherot#18	84.9%	69.2	86
42	Denis Shapovalov#43	84.8%	68.5	125
43	Jiri Lehecka#12	84.6%	67.7	136
44	YN Yoshihito Nishioka	84.4%	66.9	90
45	Damir Dzumhur#104	84.4%	66.2	96
46	DS Diego Schwartzman	84.1%	65.4	63
47	Brandon Nakashima#31	84.1%	64.6	176
48	Roberto Bautista Agut	84.1%	63.8	113
49	Adrian Mannarino#47	83.9%	63.1	124
50	Jesper de Jong#105	83.7%	62.3	92

How this is calculated

Minimum 20 matches after winning the first set. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Five years of results. These rows need only the scoreline, which exists far further back than serve statistics do.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.

Leader

Jacob Fearnley

97.2% of matches closed out after winning the first set

Average: 82.4%
Std. dev.: 5.5
Leader sits at: 2.7σ
Range: 69.1 … 97.2

131 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jacob Fearnley#110	97.2%	100.0	71
2	Wu Yibing#116	94.7%	99.2	57
3	SERNovak Djokovic#5	94.4%	98.5	178
4	Carlos Alcaraz#2	94.1%	97.7	256
5	Jannik Sinner#1	93.6%	96.9	282
6	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	92.2%	96.2	90
7	Learner Tien#19	92.2%	95.4	115
8	Casper Ruud#14	91.4%	94.6	209
9	Daniil Medvedev#6	91.3%	93.8	231
10	MM Maximilian Marterer	91.2%	93.1	34
11	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	90.6%	92.3	192
12	Grigor Dimitrov#137	90.5%	91.5	137
13	Alexander Zverev#3	90.4%	90.8	251
14	NK Nick Kyrgios	90.0%	90.0	30
15	RN Rafael Nadal	89.6%	89.2	48
16	Joao Fonseca#27	89.4%	88.5	85
17	Yannick Hanfmann#57	89.4%	87.7	113
18	Luciano Darderi#22	89.2%	86.9	102
19	SK Sebastian Korda#50	89.0%	86.2	127
20	Jack Draper#143	88.6%	85.4	105
21	Jenson Brooksby#74	88.4%	84.6	69
22	Francisco Comesana#107	88.2%	83.8	76
23	Flavio Cobolli#9	88.1%	83.1	101
24	Arthur Fils#24	87.9%	82.3	99
25	Tomas Machac#58	87.8%	81.5	82
26	Lorenzo Musetti#13	87.7%	80.8	155
27	Alex de Minaur#7	87.7%	80.0	219
28	HR Holger Rune#99	87.6%	79.2	145
29	Taylor Fritz#8	87.2%	78.5	235
30	Andrey Rublev#16	86.5%	77.7	208
31	Alexander Bublik#11	86.5%	76.9	141
32	Matteo Berrettini#40	86.2%	76.2	116
33	Jakub Mensik#17	85.7%	75.4	119
34	Tommy Paul#21	85.6%	74.6	194
35	Cameron Norrie#37	85.5%	73.8	173
36	ER Emil Ruusuvuori	85.4%	73.1	96
37	Ethan Quinn#51	85.4%	72.3	89
38	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	85.3%	71.5	68
39	Gabriel Diallo#108	85.2%	70.8	88
40	Aleksandar Vukic#101	85.1%	70.0	94
41	Valentin Vacherot#18	84.9%	69.2	86
42	Denis Shapovalov#43	84.8%	68.5	125
43	Jiri Lehecka#12	84.6%	67.7	136
44	YN Yoshihito Nishioka	84.4%	66.9	90
45	Damir Dzumhur#104	84.4%	66.2	96
46	DS Diego Schwartzman	84.1%	65.4	63
47	Brandon Nakashima#31	84.1%	64.6	176
48	Roberto Bautista Agut	84.1%	63.8	113
49	Adrian Mannarino#47	83.9%	63.1	124
50	Jesper de Jong#105	83.7%	62.3	92

How this is calculated

Minimum 20 matches after winning the first set. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Five years of results. These rows need only the scoreline, which exists far further back than serve statistics do.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.