Best servers — full ATP & WTA ranking

Leader

Jannik Sinner

+8.8 points per 100 serve points above the tour

Average: 2.1
Std. dev.: 1.9
Leader sits at: 3.5σ
Range: -2.6 … 8.8

121 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jannik Sinner#1	+8.8	100.0	98
2	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard#91	+7.1	99.2	108
3	Taylor Fritz#8	+6.3	98.3	92
4	Reilly Opelka#142	+6.3	97.5	73
5	SERNovak Djokovic#5	+6.0	96.7	58
6	Ben Shelton#10	+5.7	95.8	87
7	Alexander Zverev#3	+5.6	95.0	113
8	Carlos Alcaraz#2	+5.1	94.2	102
9	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	+5.0	93.3	97
10	Brandon Nakashima#31	+4.8	92.5	127
11	Matteo Berrettini#40	+4.3	91.7	58
12	Quentin Halys#54	+4.3	90.8	131
13	James Duckworth#86	+4.3	90.0	149
14	GZ Giulio Zeppieri	+4.2	89.2	99
15	NJ Nicolas Jarry	+4.0	88.3	49
16	Jack Draper#143	+4.0	87.5	43
17	Valentin Vacherot#18	+4.0	86.7	127
18	Hubert Hurkacz#72	+3.9	85.8	48
19	Alexander Bublik#11	+3.9	85.0	98
20	Arthur Rinderknech#29	+3.9	84.2	108
21	Marin Cilic#85	+3.9	83.3	70
22	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	+3.8	82.5	61
23	Jiri Lehecka#12	+3.8	81.7	79
24	Yannick Hanfmann#57	+3.8	80.8	110
25	SK Sebastian Korda#50	+3.6	80.0	63
26	Aleksandar Kovacevic#95	+3.6	79.2	125
27	Gabriel Diallo#108	+3.5	78.3	133
28	CE Christopher Eubanks	+3.5	77.5	69
29	Karen Khachanov#39	+3.3	76.7	78
30	Alejandro Tabilo#26	+3.2	75.8	91
31	Casper Ruud#14	+3.2	75.0	79
32	Jakub Mensik#17	+3.2	74.2	101
33	Arthur Cazaux#138	+3.1	73.3	91
34	LK Lukas Klein	+3.1	72.5	96
35	Ugo Humbert#28	+3.1	71.7	67
36	Andrey Rublev#16	+3.1	70.8	85
37	Joao Fonseca#27	+3.0	70.0	111
38	Arthur Fils#24	+3.0	69.2	60
39	Sebastian Ofner#126	+2.9	68.3	69
40	Thiago Seyboth Wild	+2.9	67.5	75
41	Pavel Kotov	+2.9	66.7	58
42	SERHamad Medjedovic#73	+2.8	65.8	106
43	BC Borna Coric	+2.8	65.0	56
44	Tallon Griekspoor#69	+2.8	64.2	73
45	Tommy Paul#21	+2.8	63.3	73
46	Alex de Minaur#7	+2.7	62.5	103
47	Benjamin Bonzi#103	+2.6	61.7	142
48	Tomas Martin Etcheverry#30	+2.5	60.8	92
49	Terence Atmane#46	+2.5	60.0	148
50	AV Andrea Vavassori	+2.5	59.2	47

How this is calculated

Opponent-adjusted. It is the excess over what the rest of the tour manages AGAINST THE SAME OPPONENTS, shrunk towards zero by n/(n+15). Without that adjustment the list rewards whoever never meets a good opponent: a Challenger regular topped the raw table.
Minimum 30 matches with serve statistics. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Every match since 2024 — that is where serve statistics begin in this database; before that there are none.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.

Leader

Jannik Sinner

+8.8 points per 100 serve points above the tour

Average: 2.1
Std. dev.: 1.9
Leader sits at: 3.5σ
Range: -2.6 … 8.8

121 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jannik Sinner#1	+8.8	100.0	98
2	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard#91	+7.1	99.2	108
3	Taylor Fritz#8	+6.3	98.3	92
4	Reilly Opelka#142	+6.3	97.5	73
5	SERNovak Djokovic#5	+6.0	96.7	58
6	Ben Shelton#10	+5.7	95.8	87
7	Alexander Zverev#3	+5.6	95.0	113
8	Carlos Alcaraz#2	+5.1	94.2	102
9	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	+5.0	93.3	97
10	Brandon Nakashima#31	+4.8	92.5	127
11	Matteo Berrettini#40	+4.3	91.7	58
12	Quentin Halys#54	+4.3	90.8	131
13	James Duckworth#86	+4.3	90.0	149
14	GZ Giulio Zeppieri	+4.2	89.2	99
15	NJ Nicolas Jarry	+4.0	88.3	49
16	Jack Draper#143	+4.0	87.5	43
17	Valentin Vacherot#18	+4.0	86.7	127
18	Hubert Hurkacz#72	+3.9	85.8	48
19	Alexander Bublik#11	+3.9	85.0	98
20	Arthur Rinderknech#29	+3.9	84.2	108
21	Marin Cilic#85	+3.9	83.3	70
22	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	+3.8	82.5	61
23	Jiri Lehecka#12	+3.8	81.7	79
24	Yannick Hanfmann#57	+3.8	80.8	110
25	SK Sebastian Korda#50	+3.6	80.0	63
26	Aleksandar Kovacevic#95	+3.6	79.2	125
27	Gabriel Diallo#108	+3.5	78.3	133
28	CE Christopher Eubanks	+3.5	77.5	69
29	Karen Khachanov#39	+3.3	76.7	78
30	Alejandro Tabilo#26	+3.2	75.8	91
31	Casper Ruud#14	+3.2	75.0	79
32	Jakub Mensik#17	+3.2	74.2	101
33	Arthur Cazaux#138	+3.1	73.3	91
34	LK Lukas Klein	+3.1	72.5	96
35	Ugo Humbert#28	+3.1	71.7	67
36	Andrey Rublev#16	+3.1	70.8	85
37	Joao Fonseca#27	+3.0	70.0	111
38	Arthur Fils#24	+3.0	69.2	60
39	Sebastian Ofner#126	+2.9	68.3	69
40	Thiago Seyboth Wild	+2.9	67.5	75
41	Pavel Kotov	+2.9	66.7	58
42	SERHamad Medjedovic#73	+2.8	65.8	106
43	BC Borna Coric	+2.8	65.0	56
44	Tallon Griekspoor#69	+2.8	64.2	73
45	Tommy Paul#21	+2.8	63.3	73
46	Alex de Minaur#7	+2.7	62.5	103
47	Benjamin Bonzi#103	+2.6	61.7	142
48	Tomas Martin Etcheverry#30	+2.5	60.8	92
49	Terence Atmane#46	+2.5	60.0	148
50	AV Andrea Vavassori	+2.5	59.2	47

How this is calculated

Opponent-adjusted. It is the excess over what the rest of the tour manages AGAINST THE SAME OPPONENTS, shrunk towards zero by n/(n+15). Without that adjustment the list rewards whoever never meets a good opponent: a Challenger regular topped the raw table.
Minimum 30 matches with serve statistics. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Every match since 2024 — that is where serve statistics begin in this database; before that there are none.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.