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Home›Stats›Elo power ranking

Elo power ranking

Strength adjusted for who you beat, not for how many points a tournament happened to award. The rating our own predictions are built on.

ATPWTA
TourChallenger / ITF
Jannik Sinner
Leader

ITAJannik Sinner

2206 Elo points

Average
1634
Std. dev.
130
Leader sits at
4.4σ
Range
1445 … 2206
130 players
#PlayerValuevs tour averagePctlSample
1
Jannik Sinner
ITAJannik Sinner#1
2206100.0455
2
Carlos Alcaraz
ESPCarlos Alcaraz#2
205899.2370
3
Alexander Zverev
GERAlexander Zverev#3
205498.4806
4
Novak Djokovic
SERNovak Djokovic#5
188097.71416
5
Arthur Fils
FRAArthur Fils#24
187096.9181
6
Felix Auger-Aliassime
CANFelix Auger-Aliassime#4
185396.1489
7
Ben Shelton
USABen Shelton#10
185095.3236
8
Taylor Fritz
USATaylor Fritz#8
184494.6592
9
Flavio Cobolli
ITAFlavio Cobolli#9
183893.8206
10
Jakub Mensik
CZEJakub Mensik#17
183493.0181
11
Casper Ruud
NORCasper Ruud#14
182492.2494
12
Joao Fonseca
BRAJoao Fonseca#27
181991.5153
13
Jiri Lehecka
CZEJiri Lehecka#12
181190.7248
14
Alex de Minaur
AUSAlex de Minaur#7
180789.9538
15
Lorenzo Musetti
ITALorenzo Musetti#13
179689.1344
16
Learner Tien
USALearner Tien#19
179688.4193
17
Tommy Paul
USATommy Paul#21
178987.6396
18
Frances Tiafoe
USAFrances Tiafoe#20
177986.8503
19
Brandon Nakashima
USABrandon Nakashima#31
177286.0326
20
SK
USASebastian Korda#50
176485.3269
21
Quentin Halys
FRAQuentin Halys#54
175784.5262
22
Andrey Rublev
RUSAndrey Rublev#16
175683.7619
23
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ESPAlejandro Davidovich Fokina#25
175082.9345
24
Daniil Medvedev
RUSDaniil Medvedev#6
174582.2644
25
Stefanos Tsitsipas
GREStefanos Tsitsipas#53
174081.4595
26
Matteo Berrettini
ITAMatteo Berrettini#40
173780.6367
27
Mariano Navone
ARGMariano Navone#44
172579.8180
28
Alex Michelsen
USAAlex Michelsen#42
172179.1199
29
Alexander Bublik
KAZAlexander Bublik#11
171978.3420
30
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Daniel Merida Aguilar
171777.527
31
Francisco Cerundolo
ARGFrancisco Cerundolo#23
171476.7306
32
Luciano Darderi
ITALuciano Darderi#22
170976.0197
33
Jack Draper
GBRJack Draper#143
170675.2184
34
Roman Safiullin
RUSRoman Safiullin#102
170574.4195
35
Yannick Hanfmann
GERYannick Hanfmann#57
170073.6291
36
HR
DENHolger Rune#99
170072.9282
37
Nuno Borges
PORNuno Borges#55
169772.1217
38
Hubert Hurkacz
POLHubert Hurkacz#72
169571.3414
39
Valentin Vacherot
MONValentin Vacherot#18
169570.5156
40
Tomas Machac
CZETomas Machac#58
169469.8163
41
Cameron Norrie
GBRCameron Norrie#37
168769.0478
42
Thiago Agustin Tirante
ARGThiago Agustin Tirante#65
168768.229
43
Alejandro Tabilo
CHIAlejandro Tabilo#26
168467.4229
44
Matteo Arnaldi
ITAMatteo Arnaldi#35
168166.7180
45
Zizou Bergs
BELZizou Bergs#34
166765.9203
46
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESPPablo Carreno Busta#68
166065.1612
47
Jan-Lennard Struff
GERJan-Lennard Struff#41
165364.3562
48
Rinky Hijikata
AUSRinky Hijikata#93
165363.6213
49
Ugo Humbert
FRAUgo Humbert#28
164962.8361
50
Botic Van De Zandschulp
NEDBotic Van De Zandschulp#70
164862.0307

How this is calculated

  • Minimum 20 rated matches. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
  • Window. The full match history with time decay, so a rating earned three years ago no longer counts as today. Retired players drop out: the list is built from those who have played since 2024.
  • One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
  • Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.