Comebacks — full ATP & WTA ranking

Leader

Jannik Sinner

56.1% of matches won after losing the first set

Average: 23.9%
Std. dev.: 8.0
Leader sits at: 4.0σ
Range: 8.3 … 56.1

132 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jannik Sinner#1	56.1%	100.0	66
2	SERNovak Djokovic#5	52.2%	99.2	67
3	Carlos Alcaraz#2	50.0%	98.5	74
4	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	41.3%	97.7	46
5	NK Nick Kyrgios	40.7%	96.9	27
6	Valentin Vacherot#18	38.5%	96.2	65
7	Alexander Zverev#3	38.3%	95.4	120
8	Matteo Berrettini#40	38.2%	94.7	76
9	Learner Tien#19	36.5%	93.9	74
10	RN Rafael Nadal	36.4%	93.1	22
11	Ben Shelton#10	34.9%	92.4	109
12	Frances Tiafoe#20	33.9%	91.6	127
13	TK Thanasi Kokkinakis	33.3%	90.8	60
14	Daniil Medvedev#6	32.7%	90.1	110
15	Hubert Hurkacz#72	32.7%	89.3	98
16	Alejandro Tabilo#26	32.3%	88.5	96
17	Taylor Fritz#8	32.2%	87.8	118
18	HR Holger Rune#99	31.4%	87.0	105
19	GZ Giulio Zeppieri	31.3%	86.3	48
20	Andrey Rublev#16	31.1%	85.5	132
21	Sebastian Ofner#126	30.2%	84.7	86
22	KN Kei Nishikori	30.0%	84.0	30
23	Jacob Fearnley#110	29.6%	83.2	71
24	Joao Fonseca#27	29.2%	82.4	65
25	Jack Draper#143	29.0%	81.7	62
26	GM Gael Monfils	29.0%	80.9	69
27	Francisco Cerundolo#23	28.7%	80.2	129
28	Karen Khachanov#39	28.6%	79.4	119
29	Tommy Paul#21	28.6%	78.6	112
30	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	28.6%	77.9	98
31	Cristian Garin#136	27.9%	77.1	111
32	Juncheng Shang	27.9%	76.3	43
33	Matteo Arnaldi#35	27.7%	75.6	83
34	Alex de Minaur#7	27.7%	74.8	130
35	Nuno Borges#55	27.7%	74.0	130
36	AM Andy Murray	27.7%	73.3	65
37	Tallon Griekspoor#69	27.5%	72.5	120
38	Wu Yibing#116	27.3%	71.8	55
39	Lorenzo Musetti#13	27.0%	71.0	141
40	Grigor Dimitrov#137	26.9%	70.2	93
41	Casper Ruud#14	26.7%	69.5	120
42	Mariano Navone#44	26.6%	68.7	79
43	DT Dominic Thiem	26.6%	67.9	64
44	DK Dominik Koepfer	26.4%	67.2	53
45	Arthur Fils#24	26.4%	66.4	72
46	Ethan Quinn#51	26.3%	65.6	95
47	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	26.2%	64.9	122
48	Gabriel Diallo#108	25.9%	64.1	85
49	Alexander Bublik#11	25.7%	63.4	144
50	Quentin Halys#54	25.7%	62.6	109

How this is calculated

Minimum 20 matches after losing the first set. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Five years of results. These rows need only the scoreline, which exists far further back than serve statistics do.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.

Leader

Jannik Sinner

56.1% of matches won after losing the first set

Average: 23.9%
Std. dev.: 8.0
Leader sits at: 4.0σ
Range: 8.3 … 56.1

132 players

#	Player	Value	Pctl	Sample
1	Jannik Sinner#1	56.1%	100.0	66
2	SERNovak Djokovic#5	52.2%	99.2	67
3	Carlos Alcaraz#2	50.0%	98.5	74
4	Felix Auger-Aliassime#4	41.3%	97.7	46
5	NK Nick Kyrgios	40.7%	96.9	27
6	Valentin Vacherot#18	38.5%	96.2	65
7	Alexander Zverev#3	38.3%	95.4	120
8	Matteo Berrettini#40	38.2%	94.7	76
9	Learner Tien#19	36.5%	93.9	74
10	RN Rafael Nadal	36.4%	93.1	22
11	Ben Shelton#10	34.9%	92.4	109
12	Frances Tiafoe#20	33.9%	91.6	127
13	TK Thanasi Kokkinakis	33.3%	90.8	60
14	Daniil Medvedev#6	32.7%	90.1	110
15	Hubert Hurkacz#72	32.7%	89.3	98
16	Alejandro Tabilo#26	32.3%	88.5	96
17	Taylor Fritz#8	32.2%	87.8	118
18	HR Holger Rune#99	31.4%	87.0	105
19	GZ Giulio Zeppieri	31.3%	86.3	48
20	Andrey Rublev#16	31.1%	85.5	132
21	Sebastian Ofner#126	30.2%	84.7	86
22	KN Kei Nishikori	30.0%	84.0	30
23	Jacob Fearnley#110	29.6%	83.2	71
24	Joao Fonseca#27	29.2%	82.4	65
25	Jack Draper#143	29.0%	81.7	62
26	GM Gael Monfils	29.0%	80.9	69
27	Francisco Cerundolo#23	28.7%	80.2	129
28	Karen Khachanov#39	28.6%	79.4	119
29	Tommy Paul#21	28.6%	78.6	112
30	Camilo Ugo Carabelli#76	28.6%	77.9	98
31	Cristian Garin#136	27.9%	77.1	111
32	Juncheng Shang	27.9%	76.3	43
33	Matteo Arnaldi#35	27.7%	75.6	83
34	Alex de Minaur#7	27.7%	74.8	130
35	Nuno Borges#55	27.7%	74.0	130
36	AM Andy Murray	27.7%	73.3	65
37	Tallon Griekspoor#69	27.5%	72.5	120
38	Wu Yibing#116	27.3%	71.8	55
39	Lorenzo Musetti#13	27.0%	71.0	141
40	Grigor Dimitrov#137	26.9%	70.2	93
41	Casper Ruud#14	26.7%	69.5	120
42	Mariano Navone#44	26.6%	68.7	79
43	DT Dominic Thiem	26.6%	67.9	64
44	DK Dominik Koepfer	26.4%	67.2	53
45	Arthur Fils#24	26.4%	66.4	72
46	Ethan Quinn#51	26.3%	65.6	95
47	Stefanos Tsitsipas#53	26.2%	64.9	122
48	Gabriel Diallo#108	25.9%	64.1	85
49	Alexander Bublik#11	25.7%	63.4	144
50	Quentin Halys#54	25.7%	62.6	109

How this is calculated

Minimum 20 matches after losing the first set. Below that the figure is noise and publishing it would be faking precision. Each family of metrics carries its own counter — 200 matches is not 200 tiebreaks.
Window. Five years of results. These rows need only the scoreline, which exists far further back than serve statistics do.
One division at a time. A player belongs to the Challenger/ITF division when more than half of their matches since 2024 are played there. Mixing the two ranks schedules rather than players: the raw list of closers was headed by an ITF player at 100% over twenty matches.
Not a betting signal. It describes a player, not a price. Our own prediction engine is measured against the market and loses: 0.632 log loss against 0.593.