Compare 2–4 players through results, serve/return and shot volumes — with the sample behind each figure.
The period applies to surface records, serve/return and shot volumes. Annual trends, head-to-head and the cumulative profile have their own stated windows. Missing data are not zero.
Recorded historical meetings, independent of the selected period. Not a prediction.
Win percentages grouped by surface.
| Surface | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 87%40 won / 46 matches | 56%14 won / 25 matches |
| Clay | 75%12 won / 16 matches | 77.8%14 won / 18 matches |
| Grass | 66.7%4 won / 6 matches | 81.8%9 won / 11 matches |
Matches without a recognised surface are not assigned to a surface.
Annual win rate across all surfaces; current year incomplete. Independent of the period selector.
Three score-derived indicators, across surfaces and levels. Each needs at least 20 relevant events. This profile does not follow the period selector.
| Metric | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys |
|---|---|---|
| How they win and how they loseDerived from the score — covers every circuit, Challenger and ITF included. | ||
| Comes back after losing the 1st set | 40%n=85 | 33.8%n=77 |
| Closes out after winning the 1st set | 90.6%n=244 | 85.4%n=157 |
| Wins the tiebreak | 72.2%n=90 | 62.1%n=66 |
Five-year cumulative score profile, independent of the period selector. Comebacks count matches after losing set one; closeouts count matches after winning it; tiebreaks count tiebreaks. Each rate needs at least 20 events. “—” means unavailable or insufficient data, never zero.
Six observed rates, with opportunities and valid-match samples visible below.
Only valid numerator–denominator pairs from the same match contribute to each rate. Break conversion is derived from the opponent's break points faced minus those saved. The table shows the contributing counts and matches.
| Metric | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Serve Win % | 70.6%1,899 / 2,690 opportunitiesn=61 matches | 68.7%1,469 / 2,139 opportunitiesn=46 matches |
| 2nd Serve Win % | 52.7%788 / 1,494 opportunitiesn=61 matches | 47.6%576 / 1,211 opportunitiesn=46 matches |
| 1st Return Won % | 37.7%385 / 1,022 opportunitiesn=24 matches | 38.5%532 / 1,382 opportunitiesn=27 matches |
| 2nd Return Won % | 59%408 / 692 opportunitiesn=24 matches | 53.4%407 / 762 opportunitiesn=27 matches |
| BP Saved % | 65.3%128 / 196 opportunitiesn=36 matches | 58.5%93 / 159 opportunitiesn=21 matches |
| BP Converted % | 41.9%151 / 360 opportunitiesn=39 matches | 48.2%80 / 166 opportunitiesn=21 matches |
Winners, aces, net points won and unforced errors per match. A description, not a skill score.
Index 100 = recorded circuit average in the selected period, pooling levels, surfaces and match formats. A larger area means more recorded shots or errors per match, not a better player.
Circuit reference: 20.6 · n=1,188
Circuit reference: 1.8 · n=29,494
Circuit reference: 8.1 · n=1,154
Circuit reference: 27.5 · n=1,190
Five matches is a plotting threshold, not a reliability guarantee. Each metric has its own sample. Counts per match also depend on match length.
These are observations from our match database, not an independent verification of every source record. Coverage varies by player and metric; some serve counts are reconstructed upstream from rounded percentages. Surface, opponent strength and match format are not adjusted for. Small samples and different schedules limit comparisons. Career means the history available in our database, not necessarily a complete career.
The weighted head-to-head percentage has been removed: its weights were not validated. Stored deciding-set, serve and partial-set indicators with calculation or coverage issues are withheld here pending upstream correction. Descriptive comparisons do not demonstrate predictive skill.